Tuesday, March 4, 2008

My Worries Are Confirmed

I've just opened my third (and certainly not last) beer of the evening. Clinton won Rhode Island and Ohio by substantial margins and Texas by a smaller amount but it's still a win. Obama took Vermont early, making it his twelfth in a row before her hat trick. I have to admit that I sorely underestimated her and her tenacity; the "kitchen sink" strategy clearly had an effect tonight. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that until quite recently Texas and Ohio were considered to be faits accomplis for her. My only consolation at this point is the very likely possibility that he will net more delegates than she despite his loss of the popular vote in those states. Of course, we most likely won't know the outcome of Texas' caucuses for days.

So despite my prediction this thing is far from over. The next few days will consist of both Democratic candidates trying to frame tonight's events as a win for themselves but the real winner tonight is John McCain, who won enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination and a concession from Huckabee. Clinton's wins ensure that she and Obama will be spending the next 3 months tearing each other apart while McCain will use the time to consolidate the Republican base, build up his fundraising and even appear with and gain the endorsement of George W. Bush, something that would have been the kiss of death a few months ago but which can now be done somewhat under the radar as the Democratic race continues to draw most of the media attention.

In the comments section of a previous post, one of my brothers-in-law said that while not a fan of Clinton he can see why she would stay in this thing and keep fighting until the end and I can't argue with that line of thought; she's been positioning herself for this opportunity for the last 16 years. I don't think I'm out of line or alone by suggesting that the Clinton marriage has always been more of a partnership than a romantic union. She is ambitious and I have to admit that it was more hope than solid evidence that caused me to predict that she would get out of this race before the last primary vote has been cast. Incidentally, here is the latest sign of ambition from the Clinton campaign. And beer number four means I'm done writing for the night.

[Update: On a more upbeat note, more people voted in the Texas Democratic caucuses later in the evening than voted for McCain all day. This should definitely be their year if they can just get it together.]


Anonymous said...

I don't think his skin was any darker there. I think there is a discoloration on our monitors.

The Clinton marriage certainly appears to be a little more business and a little less romantic to most people. It's hardly my place to judge though. Either way, Hillary has overcome a lot of obstacles to keep that thing going. I'm not sure whether she'd have been better off (politically) if she'd divorced him or if they'd stayed married. She could have had positive publicity either way, I'd say. Do you really think there are a lot of folks voting for Bill right now?

Sometimes I think about the tough times in their marriage. I can imagine how much pain she's gone through over the years. I really do hope they are happily married right now. I hope for that more than anything else.

JBW said...

Your interpretation of his skin color is up for debate. I'm just presenting the evidence. And I only paint you as a Republican because you said that you'll vote for Obama in the primary but that you weren't sure about the general election. I suppose I just assumed that you would vote for McCain if you didn't like my guy. If I was mistaken then my apologies.

As for folks voting for Bill right now, I'd have to say yes. I don't think that there is a modern historical precedent for a former president shilling for a candidate like he has for her. And every poll shows that she has great support before people get to know her, then when they do that support starts to move towards Obama. That is name recognition, pure and simple.

As for their marriage right now, I'd be quite surprised if they've been in the same bed at any time in the past few years. Not that it's any of my business either but that's just my impression from everything I've heard about the two of them. She's a survivor and I would assume that she has gone through quite a bit to get where she is today.

JBW said...

Oh, and from what I've heard, you probably could have just shown up at the caucus, written your name down for one candidate and left. Just for your edification.